Game Theory: Did Dream FAKE His Speedrun? A Final Analysis.

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There has been a controversy brewing on the Minecraft side of TH-vision centered around well known Minecraft creator Dream. He's been accused of faking his speedrun and it has caused a lot of stir. I'm not here to point fingers or accuse anyone. What I'm doing today, Theorists, is going over the facts of this situation and why it is a lot more complicated than people are making it out to be.
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#Dream #DreamSpeedrun #Speedrun #DreamSMP #Minecraft #MinecraftTheory #MinecraftLore #MinecraftUpdate #MatPat #Theory #GameTheory
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Writers: Matthew Patrick and Justin Kuiper
Editors: Dan "Cybert" Seibert, Alex "Sedge" Sedgwick, Forrest Lee, Tyler Mascola, and Koen Verhagen
Assistant Editor: AlyssaBeCrazy
Sound Editor: Yosi Berman




  • LateX is actually pronounced Latech

    SatanSatan5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา
  • I walked away from this more confused than before

    Dewie!Dewie!5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา
  • I think you described the whole Minecraft speedrun community pretty well. What's the point when you can do everything perfectly only to get screwed by RNG? What's the point when you can do 7 speed runs and never get a time about 23 minutes but person who just got into the speed running community can get a time of 14 minutes on their first try? As someone who constantly experiences bad RNG at abnormally high rates in every game I play, I cant imagine why there wouldnt be someone out there with higher than average good RNG. The Critical Roll community can certainly back me up on the claim that sometimes people seem to either be blessed or cursed by RNJesus. The thing with probability is that that it can either be awesome like with Dream, or it can be awful like rolling a die 1000 times and only getting the number you are looking for 3 times. Statisticly speaking, you should be getting your desired number fare more often. I could go on all day about how statistics do not work the way people who talk about them think they work. It is not an all encompassing algorithm and it can just flat out throw the most wild curve ball you've ever seen. So thank you for going in depth about how there can be outliers of a statistic. Not enough statistical analysts seem to remember that.

    Adam LivesayAdam Livesay7 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา
  • "Did Dream FAKE His Speedrun?" "To answer that, we need to talk about parallel universes."

    AnotherGuyOnTheInternetAnotherGuyOnTheInternet8 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา
  • He cheated that’s fact

    Placeholder 123Placeholder 12311 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา
  • Sooooo many people saying 'Boo, Mattpat is biased towards Dream', 'Boo, Mattpat didn't give a conclusive answer', and 'Boo, clickbait title'. First of all, TH-vision is often driven by clickbait. Chill. Second of all, Mattpat reached a conclusion, but since he didn't have it set up in big glowing, underlined, highlighted words, a vast majority seem to see this as him not reaching a conclusion. A large chunk of this video is basically him saying 'There's way too much at play and way too many assumptions for me to come to a definitive conclusion, and here's why''. This also partially covers the Dream bias thing. Speaking of which... Third of all and lastly, Mattpat is just keeping a business relationship open. A lot of TH-visionrs would if they had a similar situation with a large and growing TH-visionr and streamer.

    Corey CookCorey Cook12 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา
  • Just know that there is no such thing as true randomness. If you flip a coin there are still factors like how hard you flip it. Rng from computers are made from algorithms. Which can always be manipulated if you can decide the algorithm.

    flaming arrowflaming arrow13 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา
  • "Did Dream cheat?" MatPat: So he sat on a toilet actually and proceeded to call his dad, he climbed onto Mt. Everest.

    Johnny CripplestarJohnny Cripplestar17 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา
  • People can say whatever they want but there is one thing no one can deny. Not a single thing in this universe is impossible. No matter what there's always a chance it'll happen. Yes maybe Dreams drop rates were higher than usual, but how is that his fault. No one can say for certain if he cheated or not. He could've gotten 100 pearls in 100 trades and that's still technically something that can happen. In the end no statistics can help which is why we weren't given a straight answer. Unless Dream comes clean about cheating or someone else finds indisputable proof of him cheating (which don't involve random numbers and cherry-picking data) we don't have a right to say he did.

    Henrieta BHenrieta B17 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา
    • @Henrieta B The issue here though is that he had this luck not once, not twice, but consistently over 6 streams, almost totaling close to ~200 runs. At this point it's pretty obvious something is up, because the coding in MC doesn't just mess up like that over and over that many times in a row. RNG is random, but it's still a coded function within the game, and the coding doesn't support what Dream got. A good example is the TH-visionr Karl Jobst, who decided to run millions of simulations on MC's default settings to try to replicate Dream's luck, and there were none that came even a fraction of the way close to the luck Dream was getting. It's pretty safe to assume he modded his game behind the scenes.

      LeonardLeonard4 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา
    • @morbideddie Either way that doesn't really change anything l said. I'm not trying to prove that Dream didn't cheat. All l'm saying is that no one has proof of him cheating. Speculations is not proof. Random numbers is not proof. Chances are such unpredictable things. I mean the odds of either of us being born were 1 in 400 trillion. Chances of both of us surviving to our age is obviously pretty high but still worth considering. Chances of you seeing my comment were extremely low, chances of me even writing a comment were even lower. Literally the chances of us having this conversation at this exact moment are so astronomically low they would be deemed impossible by any sane person. Yet here we are. Having a civil discussion about this like it's nothing.

      Henrieta BHenrieta B11 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา
    • @Henrieta B it’s mentioned in both geosquares video and paper and dreams paper agrees with the number. The 1/7.5trillion number is the is the chance of anyone in the MC speedrunning community ever getting that lucky.

      morbideddiemorbideddie12 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา
    • @morbideddie Also where did you even get that number from? I don't remember anyone mentioning 1 in 20 sextilion chances

      Henrieta BHenrieta B12 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา
    • @Henrieta B 1/20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 chance he got that lucky. He would have a better chance of picking out a specific grain of sand in the desert. His luck is completely infeasible leaving the only rational explanation that he cheated.

      morbideddiemorbideddie12 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา
  • Of course not

    Hien Vu DiuHien Vu Diu18 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา
  • “What’s my answer? Today’s video is sponsored by Skillshare.”

    Dougal FarquharsonDougal Farquharson19 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา
  • 100 times 60+ heads because of the law of large numbers when u do someting 10times its pritty random but as oftener as you do it as closer the "relative Häufigkeit" gets to the "theoretische wahrscheinlichkeit" ( im german so i learned mathe in german and i dont know the english words)

    Dra giDra gi22 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา
  • HAHA Mr.beast in the backround: carrying like 40 switches and 33 gaming computers!

    ToymationToymation22 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา
  • Bruh

    BUG brothersBUG brothers23 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา
  • 0:11 Mr beast?

    -Muffin--Muffin-23 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา
  • ._.

    fatma alyammahifatma alyammahiวันที่ผ่านมา
  • Props for bringing up LaTeX. I remember all those nights using it for my undergraduate thesis 😂 and we pronounce it as "la-tek" 😁

    Jerric AliermoJerric Aliermoวันที่ผ่านมา
  • As a student in a stem major im happy to have gotten that latex reference at 2:03

  • so to resume, your solution is just to erase speedrunning instead of actually presenting any solution

  • Freddy plush

    Connor Lenton-willsConnor Lenton-willsวันที่ผ่านมา
  • I vote matpat for theorist president

  • The TRUE answer, *n o*

    Gabe WyattGabe Wyattวันที่ผ่านมา

    Red Fire RedRed Fire Redวันที่ผ่านมา
  • say it with me NOICE

    Imran MeerImran Meerวันที่ผ่านมา
  • 7

    richard reynarichard reynaวันที่ผ่านมา
  • Most peaceful game, huh... *Screams in 2b2t*

    Alex SchmidAlex Schmidวันที่ผ่านมา
  • It’s more likely to get head 60 times when flipping a coin 100 times than getting heads 7 out of 10 times Uh oh I got it wrong

  • 60+ id say

  • Of Dream's only "scandal" is "faking a speed run" I'd say he's not that bad

    • Yeah the fact that he basically tried to rob people who actually put the time and effort to speedrun the game from the recognition they deserve and the fact that he still has not apologized for it while effectively hiding behind his stans is nothing big I agree...

  • I unsubbed when I realized all this channel did was shill out for FNAF vids. Then I saw him always complaining to his girlfriend on stream over singleplayer videogames w nonstop imposing on her. Then I saw the news about big crybaby mattpat got his booboo feelings hurt when no one liked him being labeled as the "face of gaming" while meeting the pope. Now he's a big baby that had his favowite minecwaft stweamew bring hawassed and won't take a side. Matt, you are a despicable human being. A giant manchild that preys kids for money especially with this video. Deep down, I want you to know that your girlfriend *or any girl you'll ever be with* are only with you for your money; but you know they'll never admit it, that they don't like your shrill voice or your giant manchild attitude

    Bobobo-bo Bo-boboBobobo-bo Bo-boboวันที่ผ่านมา
    • o o f

      LeonardLeonard4 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา
  • 6/10 is more likely

    Alex HirschAlex Hirschวันที่ผ่านมา
  • Next can you talk about the Dungeons and spawners

    Fried ChickenFried Chickenวันที่ผ่านมา

    J KJ Kวันที่ผ่านมา
  • I expected better from you. I want my 22 minutes back, didn't expect you to provide a half assed inconclusive Chewbacca defense.

  • Claim your “Here before dream Commented” ticket here!

    Happi BoiHappi Boiวันที่ผ่านมา
  • 7+

    Sejr Vrislau Riis CarlssonSejr Vrislau Riis Carlssonวันที่ผ่านมา
  • “Nah you can increase your chance in the lottery, it’s a luck game so it won’t matter”

  • Every minecraft speedrunner: finishes the speedrun in about 30 or less minutes Me: beats the game in 24 hours cuz im not good at speedruns and i dont know how to make anything good and i dont know how to make potions or make enchantment books or get enchantment books

    Emanuel ZiskaEmanuel Ziskaวันที่ผ่านมา
  • Everyone came for a definite answer but forgot what channel this is to begin with. 😂

  • What if mat joined dream smp

    Mr_quackMr_quack2 วันที่ผ่านมา
    • Lol, that will be crazy

      Fury OfTheGameFury OfTheGameวันที่ผ่านมา
  • With bastion tech pig trades are reliable and quick, so the end part kind of falls flat. You also kind of gloss over how the 1-in-10 million chance that a thousand speed runners running for years would hit dreams luck lol. Seems like you didn't want to outright say he cheated

    shi uidoshi uido2 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • wow, very cool !

    ann angelichann angelich2 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • I still don’t get why so many people are mad at him. He didn’t say if Dream did or didn’t cheat, he was just saying his point of view on the outer situation. If you came here to see a “He cheated” or “He didn’t cheat” you’ve probably already seen multiple videos on the matter and already have a solid opinion. Just let MatPat voice his ACTUAL opinion instead of another insignificant answer that you have already heard multiple times.

    MasterMelonXMasterMelonX2 วันที่ผ่านมา
    • he posted this vid for money. you could literally easily deduce from the first few mins of watching this.

  • 50 60 is bs cuz chances are it’s never gonna be 50 50

    Kaden DoernerKaden Doerner2 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • 7

    Andrew GalindoAndrew Galindo2 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • 0:55 *And thats why the reason your grandfather never wants to do anything related to science..*

    Ken KanekiKen Kaneki2 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • Everyone says matpat didn't give answers. He did, he's just being unbiased and analytical. After all, no one knows the truth except for Dream. We can't just judge someone based on pure speculation. The rng evidence is nowhere close to be a solid proof. The 1.16 world record is heavily rng involved as well, indeed lots of them also look too lucky to me, but of course people love to chose to attack a celebrity instead. That being said, just stop involve yourself into stupid drama and controversies. All these accusations and criticisms are dumb.

    A FOA FO2 วันที่ผ่านมา
    • @LoliLicker yeah yeah I know, loli licker, my man morbideddie has told me that and I don't need others to remind me the same thing again.

      A FOA FOวันที่ผ่านมา
    • @A FO you get 1 in 7.5 trillion odds after correcting the biases wtf r u on about

    • @A FO I agree that luck dependent speedruns and not ideal and it should come down to skill but if Dream also didn’t like that aspect he could have run a different game or the set seed category. He chose to run random seed in a luck dependent game so it’s really on him. Alternately there are loads of speed running live events and races he could take part in if he doesn’t want to endlessly grind runs. Matpat offered this a solution but it already exists so that’s another option.

    • @morbideddie If you'll allow a slight digression i may ask, imagine getting a speedrunning world record, all you had to do is being lucky and it no longer requires hard practices and speedrunning skills as before though. How ridiculous and ironic.

      A FOA FOวันที่ผ่านมา
    • Well, I gotta admit that I'm not smart enough to digest and understand all the information you gave me, and I'm not bothered to check it, but i guess he cheated. Although the drama doesn't matter anymore, but still, good job on that. That's truly really rewardable. ╮(・o・)╭ Move on.

      A FOA FOวันที่ผ่านมา
  • So.... am I one of the only people that actually enjoyed this video? Like, I feel like he has a point about the lottery nature of the newest Minecraft Update and the Barter System specifically. (Though I've heard that people have actually found a way to control it now?). As well as how different assumptions and different decisions made in regards to data points of statistical analysis can greatly change the numbers involved? Looking at the comments, it sure feels that way.

    dolphinsniperdolphinsniper2 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • No he did not fake it

    Bradyn RexBradyn Rex2 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • Can we all agree that the dislikes are from Dream stans?

    GooseSauseGooseSause2 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • “Ive probably put more lore into Minecraft than Mojang has” Well yes, but actually yes

    TheLuchaKabutoTheLuchaKabuto2 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • Monke

    No Sleep JonesNo Sleep Jones2 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • I need my 23:30 minutes back please

    BruhBruh2 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • You missed an opportunity to use the dream speed run music for this video.

    Yisrael BrowneYisrael Browne2 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • "Man, I want to capitalize on the Dream drama, but jeez, I don't want to offend my friend and source of stream revenue Dream, so I'll dance around the issue for twenty minutes and then condemn speedrunning in general without giving a definitive statement." You're a transparent hypocrite, MatPat. I just hope that people stop seeing *through* you, and starting seeing *into* you.

    Varg KelanVarg Kelan3 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • I trust Dream yes he cheated but i think he so good a Man (I'm not a side account of Dream) :)

    Gapple ManGapple Man3 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • Plenty of speedrun games feature randomness at a high level, whether it stems from physics interactions, AI behaviors or something else. As a result, speedrunners spend ridiculous amounts of time running the level over and over, not necessarily to improve their skill, but simply to get that lucky constellation of circumstances. Since speedrunners at the top level all have roughly the same skill, the one that gets lucky ON TOP OF THAT will be the one with the record, forcing all players to grind for that bit of luck. This applies to Minecraft as well. The Piglin bartering might seem like just a slot machine, but there are other factors like where the End Portal spawns or where you come up when coming back from the Nether, etc. Yes, you can mitigate these to some degree with player skill, but if the world record is a similarly skilled player AND they get lucky (because they've been trying over and over), they're going to get a better time.

    MarconiusMarconius3 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • I saw mr beast in the background lol

    fasthi300fasthi3003 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • (I got the Latex ref, good times.)

    Bastien ClarkeBastien Clarke3 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • I think dream cheated his speedrun

    Moon WorxMoon Worx3 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • Short answer: Yes

    PerroPerro3 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • 7

    Muffin ThugMuffin Thug3 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • Dream became famous over night. He made a couple videos, and then boom. 20 million subscribers in a year and a half. It's not like cheating is gonna do anything to his ad revenue.

    DJBatmanGoldDJBatmanGold3 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • Me beast😂😂😂😂

    Lucid Son4rLucid Son4r3 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • animemusic

    Hsueh-Chen wuHsueh-Chen wu3 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • Pov: your a dream fan

    Diamond TDDDylanDiamond TDDDylan3 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • Dreams about teeth if you do he'd be on top of the leaderboard

    Selina HouslaySelina Houslay4 วันที่ผ่านมา
    • Wtf are you trying to say? I didn't understand anything you said.

      Just_A_Black_And_Grey_CampfireJust_A_Black_And_Grey_Campfire3 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • 1:40 Is that a starcraft broodwar marine assultrifle?

    Arszlan Kendi-SzakacsArszlan Kendi-Szakacs4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Just_A_Black_And_Grey_CampfireJust_A_Black_And_Grey_Campfire3 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • Matpat knows more math than many of those "math professors" that gave their answer

    SITO11MAXISITO11MAXI4 วันที่ผ่านมา
    • @SITO11MAXI The math has been done though, and has already taken into account these variants. Multiple accredited mathematicians did the math and all came to the same conclusion that he cheated. I recommend you watch these vids, because they explain all of this way better than Mat did, and actually gave an in-depth analysis to the math.

      LeonardLeonard2 วันที่ผ่านมา
    • @Leonard but the math can't be actually done because of all the variants

      SITO11MAXISITO11MAXI2 วันที่ผ่านมา
    • There were so many other mathematicians that did such better analysis than this video. All Mat did was throw a few theories up; he didn't even show any math. Meanwhile, these other guys actually do the math and explain it to you. One even ran simulations to try to replicate the scenario. Mat's vid is really so lackluster.

      LeonardLeonard2 วันที่ผ่านมา
  • Wtf happened in this video

    JauJauJauJau4 วันที่ผ่านมา
Game Theory: Did Dream FAKE His Speedrun? A Final Analysis.